Tomatoes on their way north across the U.S.-Mexico border.
This week, President Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imported goods from Arizona’s largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada that would go into effect on February 1.
Joshua Rubin, the Chairman of the Greater Nogales and Santa Cruz County Port Authority, says such a move would have devastating consequences for both the U.S. and Mexican economies.
“It’s been said already by Mexico, that if [the] U.S. implements a 25% duty on anything coming from Mexico, Mexico will impose a 25% duty on anything coming from the United States,” Rubin said.
In November, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that the country could retaliate with tariffs of its own.
“One tariff would be followed by another in response and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said.
Danny Seiden, CEO and President of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce warned that American consumers and manufacturers would bear the brunt of these tariffs.
“Our manufacturers that need to bring those goods in would be the ones paying those tariffs, which really means that cost gets passed down to the consumers,” Seiden said.
He added that the tariffs would do little to address inflation– an issue Trump has been vocal about, as well as onshoring, reshoring and making things here in the United states.
It could also lead to a trade war Seiden said, which would counter Trump’s campaign promises.
“Hopefully, it’s more of a negotiating tactic to get Mexico and Canada back to the table,” Seiden said.
Rubin says he believes Trump is leveraging tariffs as a bargaining tool to address broader issues like illegal migration and fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.
However, he noted that it is a two-way street– American money and weapons travel south and that both countries will need to tackle these problems together.
Sheinbaum echoed that sentiment in November, saying that raising tariffs wouldn’t curb illegal migration or reduce the consumption of illicit drugs in the U.S.
Rubin also highlighted a lack of understanding in Washington about the realities at the border, noting that the Port Authority actively talks to Arizona lawmakers as an effort to make that reality known.
“But most don’t come down to the border, or if they do, they come for a photo op,” Rubin said.
Despite these challenges coupled with negative press coverage, he remains hopeful that transborder relationships won’t be hindered by Trump’s actions.
“The U.S. government understands the relationship with Mexico and how important Mexico is to the United States,” Rubin said, pointing to recent investments into consulates in Hermosillo and Nogales, Mexico, as well as port of entry upgrades in San Luis and Douglas, Arizona, funded by the Inflation Reduction Act.
Mexico remains Arizona’s largest trading partner, with about $11.8 billion in goods imported from Mexico and about $2.6 billion worth coming from Canada, in the last year.
“If 25% is imposed on goods coming in from Mexico and Canada, that is extremely harmful to us, unless all of a sudden we can manifest the goods that we’re bringing in from those countries, here in our country overnight,” Seiden said.
He explained that historically tariffs have been used to generate revenue before income taxes or to protect American industries.
“President Trump is talking about an entirely new reason and that’s the shift, [forcing] a different country to take a new policy shift,” Seiden said. “It’s kind of unprecedented.”
Seiden added that February 1st is an ambitious deadline, especially since the President’s administration is still being installed, including key positions like the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce.
For now, whether these tariffs will become reality remains a game of wait and see.
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