July 17, 2020

Early polls show Dems ahead in Arizona in national races

A discussion with OH Predictive Insight's Mike Noble on what its polls reveal about 2020.

Recent polling from OH Predictive Insights in Phoenix shows Democratic candidates in closely watched races for U.S. Senate and president leading their Republican incumbents, with months to go until Election Day. Despite being behind, Chief of Research Mike Noble explained that Sen. Martha McSally and President Trump have managed to make gains in recent months.

“The issue we see in our current polling shows McSally down 9, so she’d gained 4 points from before, so she made up a little ground,” Nobel said. “She’s not really fully consolidated her base. Mark Kelly’s base is really strong among Democrats. When you look at all important independents in the middle, 2 to 1, they’re breaking for Mark Kelly.”

Noble also discussed what the results of recent polls reveal about issues voters care about most in 2020.

“When COVID hit, it drove the concern or priority among voters on immigration to the ground,” Noble said. “Immigration is not even a top three issue among Arizona voters right now. It is education, is actually no. 1, health care is no. 2, and no. 3 is jobs and the economy.”

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