Gallego retains strong lead over Lake in August polling

New polling suggests Arizona’s Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is struggling to overcome personality issues within her own party.

The latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse shows Democrat Ruben Gallego is up 47% over Lake’s 40% across a section of Arizona voters polled in mid-August.

Chief of Research for Noble Predictive Insights David Byler says the results show Gallego is benefitting from stronger party loyalty than Lake has with Republicans.

“Lake has many of the personal weaknesses with Trump, a bombastic personality, extreme positions, jumping straight to politics with little prior elected experience, but she doesn’t have Trump’s proven record on issues like the economy and immigration,” he said.

90% of polled Democrats expressed support for Gallego, and 81% of Republicans showed support for Lake. Half of all respondents also said they view Lake unfavorably. Byler said this will likely be a challenge for Lake in the weeks ahead.

“This disparity highlights a broader problem for Lake, her inability to galvanize strong across the board support from her base. If she wants to win, she has to change that dynamic,” he said.

The seven-point overall lead is a slight dip from Gallego's 10% lead in May. Byler said Lake gained a 4% slice of undecided voters who are now leaning towards the Republican candidate.

When it comes to specific issues, Gallego maintains double-digit leads over Lake on climate change, abortion, healthcare, and affordable housing.

“This race might get closer as Election Day approaches and people rush to their partisan camps,” said Byler. “But it’s impossible to look at these numbers and not see real problems for Lake as a candidate, and a real lead for Gallego.”

With Independents, Gallego is also leading with 46%, compared to Lake’s 29%. A quarter of Arizona Independents remain undecided with just over two months to go before the general election.