Election Day One Week Away; Strategists Weigh In

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Arizona and the nation are in the home stretch of a historic election campaign - historic for its finances and, perhaps, for the political transformation, according to two state political strategists.

Campaigning will be over in one week. On Nov. 4, it will be up to the voters to determine who will lead all levels of government for the next few years.

With seven days left, Phoenix-based, Republican strategist Jamie Molera said campaigns are now less worried about getting their message out.

"When you get down to the very end, it is all about getting your base out. And that is why I think (Doug) Ducey has an advantage. If he can get Republicans motivated to vote, and we have a pretty good gap of Republicans outweighing the Democrats, you know that’s going to be helpful to him," he said. "But certainly, Fred DuVal needs to make sure as many Democrats come out as possible, because they can’t give up that much ground."

Molera said he expects most of the statewide and congressional races to be close this year. But he also predicts election night will tilt to the Republicans.

Phoenix-based, Democratic strategist Mario Diaz has a different view of the political landscape in the state. He said Arizona is in the midst of a political transformation.

"If you look at the microcosm of politics. If you look at Tucson, where a few years ago, you had a Republican mayor now you have a Democrat mayor. You have a state representative in Ethan Orr, Republican in a generally Democrat area," he said. "You look at our statewide offices, you have candidates you may not have imagined a few years ago that have the potential in winning a statewide office...Dr. David Garcia for state superintendent. This is a political transformation that is happening right before our eyes."

That transformation comes in an election that is the most expensive mid-term election in history.

While candidates are raising plenty of money, outside groups are putting in the big dollars.

Diaz said people should get used to that.

"People may not like this outside money, but until it is not the law, this is part of our Constitution, it is part of our democracy. We can like it or not, but it is here to stay," he said.

Independent expenditures moved to the new, unrestricted level after the U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 decision known as "citizens united."

Those outside dollars are keeping some candidates in the race this year, according to Molera.

"Andy Tobin who is running in Congressional District 1 against Ann Kirkpatrick, she’s outraised him two maybe three-to-one. And a lot of people have criticized Andy Tobin of being not that strong of a campaigner, but he is neck-in-neck with Kirkpatrick," he said. "And the whole reason is, you have the RNCC (Republican National Campaign Committee) pump millions and millions of dollars into that race,"

"You have the U.S. Chamber of Commerce pump millions and millions of dollars into that race, and all of a sudden Tobin is neck-and-neck and some people think he will eventually pull it out. But if it wasn’t for those independent expenditures and outside money, I think Kirkpatrick stays a member of Congress," Molera added.

That represents a key change in political dynamics this election season. One that is seeing the candidates and their backers doing everything they can to secure people's votes.

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