February 22, 2024

Gallego leads Lake in new poll, no answers from Sinema

If the Independent chooses to run, a three-way race could be tight.

Kari Lake Election Night Kari Lake during the watch party for Arizona Republicans at the Scottsdale Resort at McCormick Ranch on Nov. 8, 2022.
Drake Presto,Cronkite News

Results from the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse predict Democrats might have a lead in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race this year. But much of that still rests on whether Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema decides to run again.

Among registered Republicans, Kari Lake is the clear GOP pick. She holds a 33% lead over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

But in the latest projections, Lake’s Democratic opponent Ruben Gallego would have a 10-point lead if the election were held today.

Nobel Predictive Insights CEO Mike Noble said identity could explain Gallego’s early success.

“So there's kind of two key factors at play here. Lake’s MAGA identity and Gallego’s lack of clear identity. Gallego’s low name recognition may be helping him. There's a chunk of moderate Republicans who would pick Gallego over Lake in a two-way matchup,” he said.

But, in a three-way race between Lake, Gallego, and incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, the poll showed Gallego’s lead over Lake falls to only 3%

It’s still unknown whether the current Senator will run again. Sinema has still not filed a statement of interest with the Secretary of State, which would allow her to start collecting the necessary signatures to get on the ballot.

The filing deadline for candidates is April 1.

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